Swiss Interest Rates: Lower for Longer ?
- Date: 07/12/2015
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- Andrew Bloomfield, CFA
Has the SNB reached the Zero Lower Bound? After last week’s ECB deposit rate cut, we assess the likelihood of further accommodative monetary policy in Switzerland. By applying a Taylor Rule approach to reveal the SNB’s own estimate of the neutral real interest rate, we estimate that there is indeed….
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Japan’s Current Account: Out of the Red, Safely into the Black?
- Date: 03/11/2015
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- Andrew Bloomfield, CFA
A combination of lower oil prices and the weak Yen have helped restore the trade balance to health but a naïve scenario analysis suggests that the trade balance is still subject to uncertainty from energy price and exchange rate dynamics. Worries may eventually shift from energy issues to saving rates….
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Asian “Currency Manipulation” : Mainly a US Concern ?
- Date: 29/10/2015
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- Andrew Bloomfield, CFA
The US has had a long standing concern about what it perceives to be excessive “currency manipulation” on the part of some countries, especially in Asia. This concern is primarily driven by the large and persistent US current account deficit, which will necessitate significant relative currency adjustments for it to….
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SNB Vs CNB : Currency Interventions
- Date: 07/09/2015
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- Andrew Bloomfield, CFA
The economic rationale for entering, and ultimately exiting a regime of exchange rate interventions is markedly different for the Czech National Bank relative to the Swiss National Bank. The central bank balance sheet, politics and nature of the underlying economy (and currency) are, amongst other things, important factors in helping….
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