Macro Blog

Heatwave in EM FX: Where do vulnerabilities lie?

  • Date: 27/07/2022
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Heatwave in EM FX: Where do vulnerabilities lie? Summary: EM FX universe had a turbulent year so far due to Russia-Ukraine war, resurrection of commodity price volatility, policy tightening in the face of rising inflation and waning effects of the post-COVID reopening sugar rush Performance of individual EM currencies were….

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Follow up – China’s zero-COVID policy is here to stay

  • Date: 21/07/2022
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In our previous blog on China, we argued that China’s zero-COVID policy will remain in place throughout 2022 (at least before the 20th National Party Congress) and possibly into 2023. As Shanghai and Beijing emerged from month-long lockdowns and China passed the peak of its recent COVID outbreak (Figure 1),….

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The UK’s shrinking labour force. A new era of shortages? – Part 1

  • Date: 08/07/2022
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UK unemployment is at record lows, and there are historic levels of open job vacancies. However this has not been driven by an economic boom, but instead by a decline in the size of the work force – despite a larger economy, we estimate there are approximately 700,000 fewer people….

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China’s zero-COVID policy – here to stay?

  • Date: 25/05/2022
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Part 1: Introduction: The latest wave of China’s omicron outbreak has sent daily new cases to a record high, reaching a level comparable to the initial COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan (Figure 1). On the 28th March, Shanghai, China’s commercial and financial hub with a population of 26mn, entered lockdowns, marking the….

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