Agreekment: Mapping out the flows
- Date: 14/07/2015
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- Andrew Bloomfield, CFA
The initial details of the bail-out suggest that over the next three years, Greece’s hard-line creditors could be largely ‘paid-off’, leaving the door open to debt renegotiation further down the line. While Greece is required to make further sacrifices in the form of asset privatisation, the deal postpones the economic….
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German “Losses” Under a Full Grexit Scenario: A Counterfactual Exercise
- Date: 09/07/2015
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- Andrew Bloomfield, CFA
The perceived direct financial cost of a Grexit for Germany is ultimately not the real cost. Both in terms of enhanced current account dynamics and via substantial cost savings for the sovereign issuer, there has been a direct benefit which we put in the order half a trillion Euros (conservative….
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Circular Flow of Euros
- Date: 02/06/2015
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- Andrew Bloomfield, CFA
Courtesy of the ECB we have allowed a costless exit route to any middle class and wealthy Greeks to park their money elsewhere in the Eurozone, free of charge, with full protection. There is no formal mechanism to prevent this circular flow of Euros short of the ECB putting a….
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