Brexit: How Bad Could it Get?
- Date: 23/11/2016
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- Joe Spearing
In April we noted the uncertainty that a Brexit vote would bring to the British economy. In this post, we examine how the economic risk the UK now faces may be manifested in a post-Brexit UK. In particular, we look at a “worst case scenario”, and what this might mean….
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Why the (Current Account) Income Balance Matters (…and Why We May Be Close to Low in Sterling…)
- Date: 08/11/2016
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- Andrew Bloomfield, CFA
Sterling’s deprecation since June this year has been dramatic and many commentators have welcomed this as a way to rebalance the economy via an improving trade balance. However, this may not be the first and foremost mechanism presently at work : instead, we argue that the income balance is perhaps….
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A Rational Currency Allocation
- Date: 11/10/2016
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- Andrew Bloomfield, CFA
Do market capitalisation driven weights make sense from a currency perspective? If not, how can we go about getting closer to a more balanced and optimal currency mix as part of international asset allocation? Much has been written about the long-term, zero-sum game nature of a random allocation to currencies….
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Where Are We in the Dollar Cycle?
- Date: 20/09/2016
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- Andrew Bloomfield, CFA
The US dollar is at an inflection point. Can the dollar’s cycle continue in the face of convergent economic fundamentals and central bank coordination? US policy rate normalisation does not guarantee dollar strength – real interest rate support crucial The US dollar is at an inflection point. On one hand the….
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