Could Germany Run Out of Gas?
- Date: 31/08/2022
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- Andrew Bloomfield, CFA
As the summer draws to a close and we all hunker down for the winter, European policymakers, businesses, and households alike are dreading the cold weather a little more than usual. Russia’s by now familiar weaponisation of natural gas has led to a unified effort by governments to fill underground….
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Heatwave In EM FX: Where Do Vulnerabilities Lie?
- Date: 27/07/2022
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- Canberk Yalcin
Heatwave in EM FX: Where do vulnerabilities lie? Summary: EM FX universe had a turbulent year so far due to Russia-Ukraine war, resurrection of commodity price volatility, policy tightening in the face of rising inflation and waning effects of the post-COVID reopening sugar rush Performance of individual EM currencies were….
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Follow Up – China’s Zero-COVID Policy Is Here to Stay
- Date: 21/07/2022
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- Rachel Wang
In our previous blog on China, we argued that China’s zero-COVID policy will remain in place throughout 2022 (at least before the 20th National Party Congress) and possibly into 2023. As Shanghai and Beijing emerged from month-long lockdowns and China passed the peak of its recent COVID outbreak (Figure 1),….
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The UK’s Shrinking Labour Force. A New Era of Shortages? – Part 1
- Date: 08/07/2022
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- Emman Raja
UK unemployment is at record lows, and there are historic levels of open job vacancies. However this has not been driven by an economic boom, but instead by a decline in the size of the work force – despite a larger economy, we estimate there are approximately 700,000 fewer people….
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