Where Are We in the Dollar Cycle?
- Date: 20/09/2016
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- Andrew Bloomfield, CFA
The US dollar is at an inflection point. Can the dollar’s cycle continue in the face of convergent economic fundamentals and central bank coordination? US policy rate normalisation does not guarantee dollar strength – real interest rate support crucial The US dollar is at an inflection point. On one hand the….
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Turkey After the Coup: Three Things to Watch Out For
- Date: 30/08/2016
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- Joe Spearing
Following the attempted coup in Turkey on 15th July, we examine afresh the pressure points in the Turkish economy, and note three themes investors will be watching with interest. Following an attempted coup on Turkey’s president Erdogan on 15th July, the spotlight has turned to the government reaction and the effect….
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Have Currency Markets Become More Choppy Recently?
- Date: 24/08/2016
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- Andrew Bloomfield, CFA
Are currency markets stuck in a period of short-term mean reversion? If so, what’s driving this and what are the implications for investors? One straightforward way to look at the level of mean-reversion (‘side-wayness’ as opposed to ‘trendiness’) in an asset over a given period is to look at the….
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The Carry Trade in Commodities: What is it?
- Date: 28/07/2016
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- Joe Spearing
Carry exists across all asset classes as compensation paid to speculators for assuming market risk. We argue that, as in equities, bonds, and currency, the carry trade in commodities represents a persistent source of beta-like returns. What is a carry strategy? The returns to a carry strategy carry are, broadly speaking,….
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