Why the U.S. Labour Market is not as tight as it looks
- Date: 12/06/2017
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- Jeremy Chalder, CFA
From a tightening labour market to inflation acceleration – how far left to go for the U.S. economy? Since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), US labour force participation has declined materially, suggesting a sizeable amount of additionally available labour supply, that is not fully captured in unemployment statistics, and considerable….
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The UK General Election Result: What Does it Mean?
- Date: 09/06/2017
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- Joe Spearing
The UK general election concluded with the shock result of a hung parliament, with the Conservatives the largest party. High levels of youth turnout, enthused by Labour’s radical manifesto, a strong showing for Labour amongst remain voters, and a failure of the faltering UK Independence Party (UKIP) vote to break….
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When Does the ECB Run Out of Bonds to Buy?
- Date: 15/05/2017
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- Andrew Bloomfield, CFA
If the self-imposed constraints of the ECB’s quantitative easing programme are respected, we estimate that the ECB will run out of eligible German Bunds (and German state and agency debt) to buy by mid to late 2018. We see this as the perfect excuse the ECB has for an early….
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CZK and CHF: A Tale of Two Currency Markets
- Date: 13/04/2017
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- Joe Spearing
On 6th April, the Czech National Bank (CNB) announced an end to their currency floor The market reaction was muted by comparison to that in the response to the collapse of the EURCHF floor in 2015 We analyse the differences in economic fundamentals and central bank policy which allowed this much….
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