Turkey’s External Accounts: A Health Check
- Date: 08/03/2018
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- Joe Spearing
The Turkish lira was one of the more volatile currencies in 2017. High inflation, a central bank apparently hobbled by political resistance to higher rates and persistent political jitters were key factors which made the currency vulnerable. In this post we take a closer look at the balance of payments….
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Terminating NAFTA: What Would the Impact on Canada Be?
- Date: 29/01/2018
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- Joe Spearing
As NAFTA negotiations become increasingly fraught, the risk of a complete termination by US President Donald Trump is increasing The long-run impact of such a termination is likely to be limited, based on the MFN tariffs the US could apply The most likely impact would be in terms of the….
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International Borrowing and the US Dollar
- Date: 21/01/2018
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- Andrew Bloomfield, CFA
Some market participants are worried about the ever rising market value of US borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world – as measured by the Net International Investment Position Currency depreciation can function as an effective method of adjustment following an increase in external borrowing However, there are reasons to….
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How Far Can the Euro Go?
- Date: 06/11/2017
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- Joe Spearing
The euro has been very strong this year (appreciating over 10% YtD against the dollar) Fair value (measured using PPP) is 1.33, suggesting the EURUSD pair is still around 15% undervalued In this blog post we use a FEER (Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate) framework to investigate what level exchange rate….
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