Growth In the Spring?
- Date: 29/03/2020
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- John Floyd
In the movie Being There Chauncey Gardner predicted “there will be growth in the spring”. Ephemeral cherry blossoms are a welcome harbinger of spring. Unfortunately, April showers of poor economic data are going to continue for months to come, though substantial economic support from financial authorities does provide a tailwind….
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To Infinite QE and Beyond
- Date: 24/03/2020
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- Emman Raja
A black swan. A doomsday scenario. COVID-19. They are synonymous. A global recession is now inevitable and economic damage control remains key in a global pandemic that has decimated business-as-usual. As of this morning, White House officials have emerged from negotiations confident they will reach a deal by the end….
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The Dilemmas of Pravin Gordhan
- Date: 24/02/2020
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- Joe Spearing
On 22nd February, Finance minister Gordhan presented his annual budget to the national assembly. Gordhan faced a painful trade-off between managing South Africa’s eye-watering debt situation, supporting stagnant private consumption and political sustainability in the most unequal country in the world We simulate South Africa’s debt/GDP path under different assumptions, and….
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Government Liabilities: The Full Picture
- Date: 06/02/2020
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- Kate Mitrofanov
The debt-to-GDP ratio does not represent the full scope of government liabilities, potentially calling for alternative measures of a government’s default risk. Monetary policy constraints and demographic pressures are likely to call for increases in fiscal spending, further straining governments’ balance sheets The sustainability of a government’s balance sheet is….
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