Macro Blog

EUR: undervalued even to parity?

  • Date: 06/04/2022
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The last month has been rocky for the EUR to say the least, as the common currency was forced into a primary role of a “war hedge” in light of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, seeing the currency lose c. 4% of its value (vs USD) in the latter part of February…..

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Sanctions and the US dollar

  • Date: 28/03/2022
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In a previous blog post, we argued that the invasion of Ukraine would be met with severe sanctions on Russia. Indeed, the tragic events that have since transpired led to the unleashing of extreme and co-ordinated sanctions, including a surprise move to freeze the reserve assets of the Central Bank of….

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Any port in a storm – Part 2

  • Date: 28/02/2022
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Or does global inflation matter in Switzerland? Summary: The Swiss perspective on rising global inflation is very different to the rest of the developed world. As a small open economy, the Swiss National Bank can control inflation in Switzerland by allowing the franc to appreciate, and have indicated that they….

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What could the world look like in 12 months? – Part 1

  • Date: 18/02/2022
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You can only predict things after they have happened – Eugene Ionescu Summary: The market predictions of rising interest rates around the world mean the market is expecting FX implied interest rate differentials to widen, though this is projected to have minimal impact on yields achieved by CHF investors in….

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