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The US dollar stands at a potentially pivotal juncture. In this research note, we examine the structural drivers behind dollar strength, review the factors behind its recent decline, and evaluate whether investor expectations of further weakness are justified. We underscore the challenges of achieving a Plaza Accord-style agreement in today’s environment and highlight the risks posed by Republican trade and fiscal strategies. Finally, we look beyond prevailing pessimism to assess the potential case for renewed dollar strength.

Record – Taking stock of USD pessimism